31 August 2019

I attended a virtual summit on threat intelligence this week. I watched two interesting presentations and found that I am still not convinced of the value of threat intelligence.

In vulnerability management for example threat intelligence speeds up decision making. But is speed in the decision-making phase of vulnerability management an issue?

OODA Loop

When we deal with critical vulnerabilities, e.g. vulnerabilities of the WannyCry Class, speed is crucial. The OODA procedural model is perfectly suited as execution procedure for environments where speed is crucial for survival.

OODA, an acronym for Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, was developed by John Richard Boyd in the 1950’s as survival strategy in aerial combat. Colonel Boyd, one of the most influential military strategists ever, transferred OODA to other domains after he retired from the US Air Force.

The picture below shows the OODA procedural model adapted for vulnerability management.

OODA for Vulnerability Management

We must decide whether urgent action is required if a new critical vulnerability is published. Data collected from OSINT sources, asset details, and experience in the evaluation of vulnerabilities are required for creating a well-founded decision.

Threat intelligence speeds up the Observe and Orient phase by e.g. providing data on exploits seen in the wild. But threat intelligence will neither replace current asset data, which are crucial for the Orient phase, nor speed up the Act phase, where the affected assets are patched, and their correct operations is verified.

So, if you decide on investing in threat intelligence ask yourself the question: What benefits do I expect to gain from threat intelligence in what use cases? Otherwise, it is very likely that you get disappointed.

Have a good weekend.